The New York Jets again have a must-win game, and this time they have to try and interrupt the unlikely successful run of Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos. I thought that by Week 11 of the NFL season I'd have a clear idea of what the Jets were. They'd either be ground-and-pound again, running the ball, controlling the clock, trying to crack 200 yards a game on the ground again. Or, they'd become Mark Sanchez's team; downfield throwing, relying on their third-year signal caller to win them games. But at 5-4 in a season that's had more ups and downs than a rollercoaster, I have no idea who the New York Jets are.
The Jets themselves? They haven't a clue either.
And now I'm trying to once again predict, from a fantasy football standpoint, what the Jets will do this week against the Broncos. All I know is this; that when I first looked at the Jets' 2011 schedule, I was weary of this game. Thursday night after a Sunday night game against the Patriots, and a mile above sea level, no less. That concern is still here. It's maybe even worse. So is life as a Jet fan. Going against an offense that threw the ball eight times in its last game, and with supposedly one of the top defenses in football, I'm worried. Is this what it's like to root for other NFL teams?
Anyways, as always we're going to use numberFire's weekly fantasy projections in our Start/Sit Week 11 Jets analysis. Out of principle I kind of wanted to tell you to sit every Jet you have. But I caved, so here it goes:
Start
RB Shonn Greene - numberFire projection: 15.07 carries, 62.67 yards, 0.61 TDs, 12.57 fantasy points
NumberFire also projects over three catches and 25 yards for Greene, but did you see him last week against New England? I think Mark Sanchez would rather run head on into traffic than try and throw the ball to Greene again. But Greene is actually on a roll if you look at his recent string of games. Again, the Jets have no idea who they want to be offensively, and that's hurting his production. They got away from him way too early against New England, when he was running with success. I think they stick with him on Thursday, and he's overdue to get in the end zone as well.
WR Santonio Holmes - numberFire projection: 4.07 receptions, 60.98 yards, 0.36 TDs, 8.44 fantasy points
Holmes had a really solid day against New England with 93 yards on six carries. He would have gotten into the end zone, and given the Jets a crucial 7-0 lead, if he didn't trip over his own two feet on the Jets' first drive. Either way, he's looking a lot more like the big-play threat he should be in the past few weeks, so I'd start him.
Jets Defense/Special Teams - numberFire projection: 19.26 points allowed, 2.74 sacks, 1.70 turnovers, 8.28 fantasy points
I think some of these numbers are a little out of whack, like 2.74 sacks. The Jets get 2.74 sacks about every 4,000 pass attempts by the other team, and the Broncos run the option at this point. And also, while the altitude and short week frighten me, I have a hard time seeing the Broncos put up nearly 20 points against the Jets.
QB Mark Sanchez - numberFire projection: 20.83 completions, 236.52 yards, 1.22 TDs, 15.06 fantasy points
Have I mentioned that I despise Brian Schottenheimer? Here's a quick tangent: Schottenheimer has coached three starting quarterbacks as Jets offensive coordinator, and since 2006 these are the Jets offensive yards-per-game league ranks: 25, 26, 16, 20, 11, 23. I'm not totally sure what Sanchez will be. I'm not ready to give up on him as I've heard some people this week (here's looking at you, Brandon Tierney). But you have to look at who's designed and called this Jets offense over the last half a decade as well. As for this week, what the hell. With some byes in play, Sanchez isn't a bad option.
Sit
TE Dustin Keller - numberFire projection: 3.58 receptions, 38.76 yards, 0.32 TDs, 5.82 fantasy points
Who is Dustin Keller? He plays for the Jets?
WR Plaxico Burress - numberFire projection: 2.57 receptions, 48.33 yards, 0.38 touchdowns, 7.38 fantasy points
If he doesn't get in the end zone, he's usually useless for a fantasy team. I think the Broncos key on him in the red zone.
K Nick Folk - numberFire projection: 1.28 field goals made, 2.30 extra points made, 6.61 fantasy points
As punishment for missing a 24-yard chip shot in the biggest game of the year.