The National Football League is funny. Not only is the league filled with parity, but at this point in the season its easy to determine which teams are really good and what ones are bad.
However, once in awhile, the really good teams disappoint. So, each week (at least as a bettor) you need to go through the schedule and figure out which teams will tank during the week.
This week, I am going with the New York Giants and Atlanta Falcons, and its not because I think these teams are overrated or bad. Its just because each are due for a slip up.
As a person who makes picks, you need to make these decisions which will separate you from a very good week to a bad one. Last week, I split on my big decisions and the result was a 7-7 record (I am 53-59-5 overall).
Here's to hoping I am right.
(All point spreads provided by Oddshark.com and Bovada.)
Point spread: Chargers 9-point favorite.
Pick: Chargers 24, Chiefs 17
Prediction: It was once thought the AFC West was one of the best conference in the league, however, the fall of these two teams have hurt that assumption. This game will be sloppy and San Diego will win but will not score enough to cover the spread.
Point spread: Broncos 4-point favorite.
Pick: Broncos 30, Bengals 20
Prediction: Speaking of the AFC West... Denver is slowly making a case for the best team in the AFC. And that trend will continue this week.
Point spread: Ravens 4-point favorite.
Pick: Ravens 23, Browns 17
Prediction: Cleveland will be coming off a big victory last week and may forget its playing Baltimore this week. The line is too close for me not to like the Ravens.
Point spread: Packers 12 1/2-point favorite.
Pick: Packers 28, Cardinals 14
Prediction: I don't know what Green Bay as doing with Jacksonville last week, but a nine-point win is too close for comfort against a bad team. Another mismatch this week should favor the Packers.
Point spread: Bears 4-point favorite.
Pick: Bears 27, Titans 21
Prediction: Chicago is ranked in the top 5 of many Power Rankings, and rightfully so, this is a good team. Too good to not cover a four-point spread against a not-so-good Tennessee squad.
Point spread: Dolphins 1-point favorite.
Pick: Colts 21, Dolphins 20
Prediction: A victory for Indianapolis will put them in the running for an AFC playoff spot. What a story would that be if Andrew Luck can lead the Colts to the postseason without their head coach. I like this story to build up steam.
Point spread: Redskins 3 1/2-point favorite.
Pick: Panthers 28, Redskins 24
Prediction: Cam Newton almost pulled off the upset last week. This week, he's playing a team with a bad defense and it should help him. As much as I like RG3, this one is going to the Panthers.
Point spread: Lions 4-point favorite.
Pick: Lions 24, Jaguars 21
Prediction: Jacksonville held tough with the Packers last week. I like them to hang closer with an overrated Detroit team.
Point spread: 10 1/2-point favorite.
Pick: Texans 30, Bills 28
Prediction: A double-digit blowout could happen, but the Bills are coming off a bye week and needed to split one of the next two (next week is New England) to keep their playoff hopes alive. They can hang tight in this one.
Point spread: Raiders 1-point favorite.
Pick: Buccaneers 20, Raiders 19
Prediction: What type of pirate is more bad ass, a Buccaneers or Raider? I am going with Buccaneers this week.
Point spread: Seahawks 5-point favorite.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Vikings 20
Prediction: Is Minnesota's luck running out? Are the Vikings finally coming back down to earth? This week will decided that. I like them to lose, but cover.
Point spread: Giants 3 1/2-point favorite.
Pick: Steelers 27, Giants 24
Prediction: Lets all admit it, this is a game New York loses in the regular season. In the postseason, they win.
Point spread: Falcons 4 1/2-point favorite.
Pick: Cowboys 24, Falcons 20
Prediction: Lets all admit it, this is a game Dallas wins in the regular season. In the postseason, not so much.
Point spread: Saints 3 1/2-point favorite.
Pick: Saints 24, Eagles 17
Prediction: Andy Reid's and Michael Vick's head will be on the chopping block after this one. Sorry Eagles fans.
Last week's record: 7-7-0. Season record: 53-59-5.