clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Kentucky Derby Predictions 2012: Experts See Possible Long Shots

Everybody loves a winner. It's just that when it comes to horse racing, nobody wants to bet on the favorite to be winner. Where is the fun in that? More importantly, where is the money in that? There isn't any -- or at least, not much.

When bettors head to the window at the track, their local OTB parlor or wherever to plunk down some cash on Saturday's 138th running of the Kentucky Derby odds are that many of them will be looking for a big payday -- looking to ride a long shot horse to a fat wallet. Sure, you could bet on favored Bodemeister (4-1) or Union Rags (9-2), but if you are looking for a riskier proposition -- and a bigger potential payoff -- here are some ideas from the experts.

Kentucky Derby 2012: Examining possible longshot winners - - Sporting News

Anything can happen in the Derby, they say.

Why not this one?

Four horses to consider for the role of longshot victor on Saturday for the $2,219,600 purse are: Prospective (30-1); I'll Have Another, stuck in the 19th post position (12-1); El Padrino, hot during the spring, cool and forgotten by May (20-1) and Take Charge Indy (15-1).

Kentucky Derby Preview | KentuckyDerby.com

Saturday's Kentucky Derby has a pair of top contenders in Bodemeister and Union Rags, but I've never seen a Kentucky Derby field so deep with viable win options. A compelling case can probably be made for half the field.

I've identified eight logical win candidates (in alphabetical order) -- Bodemeister, Creative Cause, Dullahan, Gemologist, Hansen, I'll Have Another, Take Charge Indy and Union Rags -- and could've included Alpha and Daddy Nose Best in the mix as well.

2012 Kentucky Derby: Picks And Predictions - SBNation.com
If the Kentucky Derby was just a matter of selecting the best horse, I'd pick Bodemeister and call it a day. Unfortunately, the Derby isn't that simple. The pace, trip and distance are too important to simply pick a winner based on talent.

I won't be a bit surprised if Bodemeister wins the Derby, but the wagering gods have me looking at others for a bit more value. I'll have some money on Bode, but he won't be my prime bet.

The majority of my plays on Saturday are going to involve putting Dullahan and Alpha in the top spot, with Union Rags, Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, and El Padrino on the bottom. In Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers, I'll use all of those horses, along with Bodemeister.

Kentucky Derby 2012: Horses and Jockeys (via sbnation)