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Top Draft Picks Not Guaranteed Success

Tyler Kepner of the New York Times reminds us that being selected early in the Major League Baseball draft means little about long-term success.

Will Cito Culver, a shortstop from Rochester, N.Y., be the next Derek Jeter? Will Matt Harvey, a standout pitcher at North Carolina, turn into a Mike Pelfrey?

Not to be a downer, but odds are these draft picks will fade into obscurity, if recent experience is any guide. Take the Yankees. Of their 16 first-round picks since 2000 (including their compensation picks), only Phil Hughes (2004), Joba Chamberlain (2006) and, arguably, Ian Kennedy (2006) have done anything of note. Even then, Hughes has all of 20 career wins.