SB Nation New York's 2011-12 NBA Predictions

New York Knicks 2011-12 Season Preview, Part IV: The X Factor

SB Nation New York will be running a five-part season preview of the 2011-12 New York Knicks, culminating right before the start of the season on Christmas Day.

Part I: The Stars

Part II: The Non-Stars

Part III: The Coach

Part IV: The X Factor

In the first two parts of our 2011-12 Knicks Season Preview, we broke down the Knicks' roster into two factions: The Stars and the Non-Stars. Those who belong to the first group are Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire and the newly acquired center Tyson Chandler. I made the distinction because its clear who the most important players on the Knicks are, but also because we know what we're getting with The Stars. Carmelo and Amare will score, a lot, and won't play tons of defense. Chandler will do the opposite. You know what you're getting from them, and if they don't play well, the Knicks are doomed. We're going to sort of assume that they'll be themselves.

That leaves us with the rest of the roster. On any winning NBA team, the ancillary players make a huge difference. When you get to the finals and late playoff rounds, every team has stars. Often the better and bigger stars prevail, but there hasn't been a championship team that didn't get major contributions from its role players. Last year the Dallas Mavericks rode Dirk Nowitzki to a title, but they don't get there without the play of JJ Barea, Jason Terry and Chandler, now a Knick. The team they defeated, the Miami Heat? Sure, LeBron James wasn't as great as everyone would expect of him, but they were giving huge minutes to the likes of Joel Anthony and Eddie House.

For this Knicks team, there are a few candidates for the team's X Factor, the guy who could help the team immensely with good play and slog them down with poor play. There's Baron Davis, who is a huge unknown at this point. How healthy will he be when he finally comes back? Will he be in shape? Will he be motivated? There's Landry Fields, who was an All-Rookie selection last season but only based on his play pre-Carmelo Anthony trade. If Fields can find his form from the beginning of last season -- knocking down open threes, playing sold defense, getting out in transition -- he's the type of role player that many successful teams have. Does iman Shumpert improve on his shot selection and become a better offensive player?

And that brings us to Toney Douglas, who I choose as the X Factor for this Knicks squad. Douglas will begin the year as the starting point guard, but will he end it there? Douglas will have to get off to a fast start to keep his job, with Davis entering the fray in a few weeks. The way Mike D'Antoni seems to have shaped the offense will help Douglas, as it calls for Anthony to handle the ball the most and play as a point forward. With that being the case, Douglas will be relied upon to provide secondary scoring by hitting perimeter shots. Douglas hit 37% of his three pointers last year, down from 39% in his rookie year (he did attempt many more as he played more minutes). He's going to get a lot of open looks from deep. If he can hit nearly 40% as he did as a rookie, the Knicks will put up a ton of points.

Defensively, Douglas is one of the Knicks' more aggressive players. Aggressiveness doesn't always lead to being a good defensive player, but Douglas does cause a lot of turnovers with his speed and relentlessness. It will be interesting to see the effect assistant coach Mike Woodson has on the whole team, and specifically Douglas. Woodson likes to pressure the ball right as it crosses half court, and Douglas will often be the guy given that task. If Douglas can turn into a very good defender he'll get a lot of minutes, and the Knicks will be better for it.

The season begins soon, and all eyes will be on the Anthony, Stoudemire and Chandler. But if the Knicks want to be playing deep into June, the others on the team will play a big role -- perhaps none bigger than Douglas.

New York Knicks 2011-12 Season Preview, Part III: The Coach

SB Nation New York will be running a five-part season preview of the 2011-12 New York Knicks, culminating right before the start of the season on Christmas Day.

Part I: The Stars

Part II: The Non-Stars

Part III: The Coach

Before we get started on Part III of our Knicks Preview, where we'll dissect head coach Mike D'Antoni, we have to address the addition of Baron Davis (and to a lesser extent, Steve Novak), who have joined the fray since we ran Part II, which examined the Knicks' "Non-Stars". There's no question that if Baron Davis is motivated, is in good shape, and can stay healthy, he gives this Knicks team a playmaking veteran point guard and a much needed talent boost in the backcourt. The problem is that all of those are huge ifs. Statistically, he's declined over the past few years since joining the Clippers in 2008-09. Last year after moving from LA to Cleveland after the deadline, he averaged just 6.1 assists per game (in a small sample of 15 games), the lowest average for him in his career as a starting player. Of course, the Cavaliers were a terrible team last year, which must be taken into consideration. It's a low risk, high reward move for the Knicks, as he accepted a veteran's minimum contract (meaning the Knicks still have their $2.5 million exception -- call me crazy but I'd consider Gilbert Arenas if he'd take it). The Davis move is just one without a lot of certainty attached to it. You're not sure what you're getting.

As for Novak you do know what you're getting. He gives the Knicks a bench option who can knock down threes. It's a good depth move.

Now, on to Part III...

Mike D'Antoni defenders say he's never been given a fair shake. And it's possible that when he completes his fourth season with the Knicks, he'll still have never been given a real shot. In his first two years, the pre-Amare Stoudemire years, he was simply a caretaker, tasked with making the team entertaining enough to sell a few tickets before the Knicks could land a superstar in the summer of 2010. Last year even after Stoudemire signed on, the goal was heightened to "make the playoffs", but the Knicks had their eyes on Carmelo Anthony. When they rightfully gutted the roster to get him and Chauncey Billups, D'Antoni had no training camp or preseason with his new roster. The Knicks skittered to a 14-14 post-trade record and were swept in the first round by the Celtics.

And then there's this upcoming 2011-12 season, and D'Antoni again doesn't have the benefit of a full training camp and preseason because of the lockout. The Knicks brought in Tyson Chandler and added Baron Davis -- who won't play until the season is already underway -- so there will be more assimilation throughout the year as the team is forced to learn on the go.

Are these excuses for D'Antoni's lack of success with the Knicks, or are they real reasons? The answer is probably somewhere in the middle, but one thing is certain: D'Antoni is coaching for his job this year.

The organization finally convinced (or forced) him to hire a defensive-minded assistant. Enter Mike Woodson, the former Atlanta Hawks head coach. Clearly, the organization has recognized that the Knicks need to become a more viable defensive team both in their personnel (see Chandler and the drafting of Iman Shumpert) and in it's philosphy. The Knicks will never be a dominant defensive team as long as D'Antoni is running the show, but they'll go nowhere if they play defense as they have the first three years under him. All you need to do is look at last year's playoff sweep against the Celtics, where D'Antoni was totally outcoached by Doc Rivers. The Knicks didn't have great defensive players last year, but the two awful lapses in a winnable Game 1 (the inbound alley-oop to Kevin Garneet that took zero time off the clock, and Ray Allen's open three to win the game) prove that D'Antoni needs a defensive voice in his huddle.

This year will test D'Antoni as an offensive coach as well. He's known as one of the best offensive minds in the league, and we'll see exactly how true that is this year. D'Antoni's best years were in Phoenix with an all-world point guard in Steve Nash. The Knicks looked better last year when Raymond Felton was running the point as opposed to Chauncey Billups. Billups was never the right fit for D'Antoni's offense, and now the Knicks are very thin in the backcourt. In the preseason, we've seen the offense run mainly through Carmelo Anthony. He's an excellent passer (something he's not given credit for quite enough), and D'Antoni seems to think having the ball in his hands as much as possible is the way the Knicks want to go. It's an interesting idea by D'Antoni, essentially forgoing the need for a true point guard. When Davis is healthy, does he start? Do the Knicks still run things through Anthony? How does Stouemire fare running pick and roll with Anthony? The way this Knicks' roster is built is not in the D'Antoni mold, and at least he seems to have recognized that.

And then there's the very distinct possibility that we should read more into the organization's decision to sign Tyson Chandler and hire Mike Woodson. One thing we haven't mentioned yet is that D'Antoni is in the final year of his contract. He's not been given an extension, and there hasn't been a peep about one. I have a feeling that if Phil Jackson were to come out with some sort of statement saying he's truly retired, you'd start to hear talks about a D'Antoni extension depending of course on how the Knicks do this season. As long as the Knicks think they can convince Jackson to come out of retirement and coach the franchise he won two titles with as a player, D'Antoni is going to be a lame duck.

Even if Jackson stays retired, D'Antoni is coaching for his job this season. The Knicks need to win at least one playoff round in order for an extension to be considered. Yes, D'Antoni has to deal with the shortnened preseason and crazy schedule and a new roster. But this year, that's what every coach in the NBA is dealing with as well. The front office gave D'Antoni an interior force in Chandler that can help mask a lot of the team's defensive deficiencies. It's now on him to get Anthony and Stoudemire to gel, to get the Knicks back to being an elite team, in the playoffs and winning rounds.

If not (and still maybe even if), this could be the end of the Mike D'Antoni Era for the Knicks.

New York Knicks 2011-12 Season Preview, Part II: The Non-Stars

SB Nation New York will be running a five-part season preview of the 2011-12 New York Knicks, culminating right before the start of the season on Christmas Day.

Part I: The Stars

Part II: The Non-Stars

I was originally going to devote a section of this five-part preview as "The Bench", but I opted to go with "The Non-Stars". The reasoning behind that is fairly simple: outside of Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler (who we discussed in Part I), what's the difference between who's on the bench and who starts at the guard positions - likely Landry Fields and Toney Douglas? I'm not going to make a mistake and say that the rest of the Knicks roster isn't important, because it is. It's actually very important, and one of the players were look at in this Part II we'll discuss in-depth in another section of the preview, The X Factor (oh, the anticipation!). But the three most important Knicks are the stars. What everyone else does will go a long way towards where the Knicks eventually end up this season, but those three should be looked at separately. That's what we'll do in this section as we zero in on the rest of the Knicks' roster. 

Toney Douglas

Douglas is going to battle rookie Iman Shumpert and dinosaur veteran Mike Bibby at point guard. Mike D'Antoni has pretty much said it's his job to lose, but with the way Douglas played in the playoffs in Chauncey Billups' absence last year, it's not a given that he won't lose the job. Douglas is way more of a combo guard than a true point. D'Antoni has insinuated that he'll look to run the offense more through Anthony, using him as a point-forward.. If that is indeed the case, the most important thing Douglas can do is knock down shots from distance. Right now, the Knicks lack a bit of outside shooting (further explained by their pursuit of Jamal Crawford), and Douglas will need to pick up that slack.

Landry Fields

What a strange season last year was for Landry Fields. It pretty much boiled down to pre-trade Fields and post-trade Fields, and post-trade Fields wasn't very good. In the Knicks' final 17 games last year, Fields hit double digits in points just five times. It's strange because Fields isn't a player that demands the ball or needs it to be valuable. He's a good rebounder for a guard and a solid defender. Maybe the trade coincided with Fields hitting the rookie wall towards the end of the season. Maybe he just meshed better with Danilo Gallinari, Raymond Felton, etc. It could probably go either way for Fields this year. Like Douglas, Fields will need to knock down shots from the perimeter, which he did quite well last year (to a very solid Effective Field Goal Percentage of .568). Fields has to find his niche on this team soon or three years from now we might be having the "What the hell ever happened to Landry Fields?" conversation.

Mike Bibby

I'm directly on the fence with this signing by the Knicks. Bibby can still hit form behind the arc, which the Knicks desperately need, especially off the bench. To me, the effectiveness of Bibby for the Knicks rests with D'Antoni and how he uses him. With the crazy schedule this year, Bibby can't be playing a ton of minutes, almost ever. Why can I see D'Antoni forgetting this, falling in love with Bibby's range, and having nights where he plays 30 minutes? I'm having nightmares of Tyson Chandler getting in foul trouble and D'Antoni putting out a lineup of Bibby-Douglas-Bill Walker-Anthony-Stoudemire (a team that would struggle to defend five traffic cones) for an extended period of time. If D'Antoni uses Bibby effectively -- 15-20 minutes a night in the right situations -- I think he can be a valuable piece. He fits the "cheap veteran who still does one thing very well" mold that a lot of winning teams have. Let's hope he doesn't wear down before the playoffs.

Iman Shumpert

Shumpert seems like the absolute anti-D'Antoni player. Every scouting report I've read talks about his athleticism first, and his offensive ability second. Which is completely fine, by the way. I just wonder if D'Antoni will find enough minutes for a guy who doesn't give the team much offensively. If so, I think Knicks fans could fall in love with Shumpert, who from all accounts is an athletic freak and a great defender.

Bill Walker

Is Billy Walker really still on the Knicks? Jeez. He's going to get minutes too, given the crazy schedule. He'll hit his share of threes and that's about it.

Jared Jeffries

Jeffries is a solid rotation forward who knows the system and the coach loves. He was always coming back to the Knicks, so deal with it. And really, as long as he's not the intended receiver during a crucial last possession in a playoff game with a one score deficit, then everything will be okay. With Tyson Chandler and Jerome Jordan in tow, Jeffries slots in as the backup to Stoudemire. He won't play nearly as much as he has in the past under D'Antoni, so he'll solely be in there to take charges, grab some rebounds and use up fouls. Which is about all he can do anyway, so this is a good thing.

Jerome Jordan

The Knicks have brought Jordan over from Slovenia, as he's been based in Europe  since the Knicks acquired his right on Draft Day 2010. Comparisons have been drawn to last year's 7-foot project Timofey Mozgov. This is going to sound strange, but if Jordan can give the Knicks what Mozgov showed towards the middle of the season (enough for some really strange people to complain about his inclusion in the Carmelo trade), the Knicks would sign up for that in a heartbeat. When was the last time the Knicks had two legitimate 7-footers at center? What other team in the NBA has that? We don't have any reason to believe Jordan has supreme talent or will be a huge difference maker, but for a team that used Jared Jeffries at center a lot over the past few years, having more legit size cannot be looked at as a bad thing.

Renaldo Balkman

I guess it's actually possible given the schedule we're going to see this year that Balkman may actually get some minutes. It won't be a lot though, and that's positive, since Renaldo Balkman lacks all the requisite skills that a real NBA player possesses.

Josh Harrellson

New York Knicks fans, meet your version of Brian Scalabrine. The Garden will go NUTS when Harrellson comes into blowout games.

Chris Hunter and Devin Green

The Knicks simply signed these guys to fill out their roster so that they could meet league guidelines and take part in the season.

So as you can see, the play of the Knicks' stars is going to be extremely important. The few cogs outside of Anthony, Stoudemire and Chandler are Douglas, Fields, Shumpert and Bibby. Each have question marks heading into the season. There have been rumors floating around that the Knicks are interested in Michael Redd. If Redd has anything left in the tank, it's a low-risk move that's worth making. You can never have too many shot-makers, and the Knicks still do need some. I'd expect the Knicks' roster towards the middle of the season to look a bit different, as they'll continue to try and acquire some much-needed depth. But with the regular season fast-approaching, these are the guys they'll go to work with.

New York Knicks 2011-12 Season Preview, Part I: The Stars

This is the first part of an extensive five-part series previewing the New York Knicks 2011-12 season.